Thursday, October 21, 2004

The "Election Market" and W part II

Here is a break down of the price of a contract for President Bush to win State by State as of 11 p.m. October 21, 2004. Perhaps more interesting than what the money on the overall race is saying is what the money bet on the State by State races reveals. You see,Tradesports.com also lets you buy contracts State by State (only for W. not for Kerry) so if you think W will win New York you can buy a contract indicating that out come and if he does win NY you get paid $100. You may buy that contract for around $5 on Tradesports Presidential election market. A Bush to win contract for Indiana or Alabama will cost you over $95. I applied the collective wisdom of the market to the electoral college by giving W the electoral college votes of any State where the Bush to win contract costs over $50 and Senator Kerry the electoral college votes of any State paying less $50. As of 11 O'clock PM Oct. 21. W wins 286 to 254.W can even lose the State selling closest to $50 but above $50, Iowa at $55 with 7 electoral votes and still win the Neccesary 270. Bush would win 279. I have posted the state by state again as of 11 PM EDT below:States Electors Tradesports R or D$to buy K ( W to win )Alabama 9 97 RAlaska 3 97 RArizona 10 91 RArkansas 6 84 RCalifornia 55 06 DColorado 9 82 RConnecticut 7 06 DDelaware 3 09 DDist. of Col. 3 02 DFlorida 27 64 RGeorgia 15 96 RHawaii 4 08 DIdaho 4 97 RIllinois 21 08 DIndiana 11 96 RIowa 7 51 RKansas 6 95 RKentucky 8 95 RLouisiana 9 94 RMaine 4 18 DMaryland 10 08 DMassachusetts 11 03 DMichigan 17 21 DMinnesota 19 38 DMississippi 6 98 RMissouri 11 84 RMontana 3 97 RNebraska 5 96 RNevada 5 77 RNew Hampshire 4 40 DNew Jersey 15 18 DNew Mexico 5 37 DNew York 31 05 DNorth Carolina 15 88 RNorth Dakota 3 98 ROhio 20 58 ROklahoma 7 97 ROregon 7 18 DPennsylvania 21 29 DRhode Island 4 4 DSouth Dakota 3 97 RTennessee 11 94 RTexas 34 98 RUtah 5 98 RVermont 3 05 DVirginia 13 89 RWashington 11 08 DWest Virginia 5 82 Risconsin 10 58 RWyoming 3 97 R(270 Votes are needed to win.) Total 538 W = 286 K = 252:

Wednesday, October 20, 2004

The "Election Market " and what it has to say about W's chances

There are at least 3 online markets where you can "bet" on the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. The bets are placed by buying futures contracts for either Kerry or Bush at a price between $1 and $100 determined by the market which fluctuates much as any futures market. When the president is determined (hopefully by Nov. 3) the winner's contract will pay $100 the losers contract will pay $0. Today for example you can buy a contract for Bush on October 19 at 11 o'clock EDT for about $59 or a contract for Kerry for about $41. This means the collective wisdom of the market favors a Bush win at the time cited by roughly 59%. I have been watching Tradesports.com an internet market out of Ireland with the bank of Dublin holding the money and presumably dispensing the money to the individuals holding the winning contracts after election day . You can get in on the action or just watch at Tradesports.com. If like me you can't make head or tales of the polls being put forth or you don't trust the pollsters here is a way to tap the collective wisdom of the market where said wisdom is derived from people putting there money where there mouth is.

Perhaps more interesting than what the money on the overall race is saying is what the money bet on the State by State races reveals. You see,Tradesports.com also lets you buy contracts State by State (only for W. not for Kerry) so if you think W will win New York you can buy a contract indicating that out come and if he does win NY you get paid $100. You may buy that contract for around $5 on Tradesports Presidential election market. A Bush to win contract for Indiana or Alabama will cost you over $95. I applied the collective wisdom of the market to the electoral college by giving W the electoral college votes of any State where the Bush to win contract costs over $50 and Senator Kerry the electoral college votes of any State paying less $50. As of 11 O'clock Oct. 19 W wins 286 to 254. (More later)

Sunday, October 17, 2004

Welcome

Welcome we're open all night. Not really but that is how I answer the phone much to the chagrin of my daughters (actually I suspect they like it) and I thought it might be a good name for my first blog. The way my sleep patterns are I may be posting at any time so the name is appropriate. You of course may comment all night also.


Long ago "Never argue with a man who buys ink by the barrel" was as true a statement as was ever written and even more so when it came to the big 3 networks cBS, NBC, and ABC. Now thanks to the internet the arguments with the ink by the barrel (ibtb) guys are continuous, and even won on ocassion by the Pajamahedeen who dare to take on the ibtb guys and the 3 Bs . Witness Rathergate! I hope to be one of these Pajamahedeen (although I don't own pajamas and will be creating my posts in blue jeans and a t-shirt or sweat shirt). I look forward to the struggle.

Amazing Paragraph in W.P.

In a Washington Post article on their recent poll is this amazing paragraph:

"The Post tracking poll shows Bush leading Kerry 50 to 47 percent. ... But the survey suggests that Kerry continues to claim a large lead in key battleground states. In these 13 states, Kerry held a 53 percent to 43 percent advantage among likely voters."

The story doesn't say which are the "battleground states" but if both these things are true President Bush must be ahead in NY and/or California, highly unlikely, or have hugh majorities in the South and non battleground midwest i.e. Indiana. Can the two sets of numbers in the quoted paragraph be reconciled?